... The biggest three changes that I believe will shape the future of journal publishing are: ?rst, the success of the open access versus toll access business models; second, the survival or downfall of the journal brand on the author side; and third, the survival or downfall of the journal brand on the librarian side. ...
What are the drivers behind a shift from the current toll access business models to open access business models? First, there is the recognition by scholars, and more importantly by research funders and policy makers, of the merits of open access, the promise of giving every researcher on the planet free online access to the whole journal literature. Second, the serials crisis and the pressure on the library budget make it very difficult for toll access publishers to expand their toll access journals or launch new journals under the toll access model. This was one of the principal reasons OUP converted their ?agship journal Nucleic Acids Research to open access and was the principal motivation for Hindawi to switch its full journal collection to open access a couple of years ago. Finally, green open access is going to push publishers towards gold open access as a more ?nancially viable and secure business model. ...
Now, I would like to move to look at the future of journal publishing based on these changes. ... I would like to present the extreme cases, the possible futures in which one or more of these changes have completely been realized. ...
The ?rst possibility is a world in which none of the three changes actually took place. This is not actually a future, but the near past of the scholarly journal market. ...
The second possible future is one in which journals are still under the toll access model, journals are keeping their strong brand on the author side, but in which big deals have completely taken over most of the library acquisition budget. ...
The third possible future is a future in which journals are still under the toll access model but in which authors stopped caring about the journal as a brand. ...
The fourth possible future is one in which journals are open access but still represent strong brands on the author side. ... In this future, publishers of high-impact journals can demand higher article processing charges. However, there will be a significant level of competition between publishers, because although journals lack any interchangeability on the reader side, they are much more interchangeable on the author side. ... This market competition will lower the total cost of the scholarly journal system and will ensure significantly higher levels of economic efficiency.
The last possible future is one in which journals are both open access and have lost their brands on the author side. You may call this future “Commoditization 2.0.” ...
This is a future in which every journal is a PLoS ONE-like journal, publishing all submitted manuscripts that are rigorous, regardless of their potential impact. Cross-publisher databases and services will help the scholars and the science administrators to navigate and evaluate individual articles and authors. ...
Posted by
Gavin Baker at 10/21/2009 04:07:00 PM.
The open access movement:
Putting peer-reviewed scientific and scholarly literature
on the internet. Making it available free of charge and
free of most copyright and licensing restrictions.
Removing the barriers to serious research.
I recommend the OA tracking project (OATP) as the best way to stay on top of new OA developments. You can read the OATP feed on a blog-like web page or subscribe to it by RSS, email, or Twitter. You can also help build the feed by tagging new developments you encounter.
